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Initial genealogy skill

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# Council of Experts Escalation Guide
When to convene the Council, what to bring, and what to expect.
## Purpose
The Council of Experts provides independent perspectives on research problems. It is most valuable when you've been grinding in one direction and need fresh eyes to see what you're missing. It is NOT a substitute for doing the research.
## Escalation Criteria
### Escalate: Pattern of Independent Failures
The key signal is **independent** failures — the same negative result across unrelated dimensions.
**Two independent misses = stop and think:**
- Searched two census years (different decades) across the expected county — person absent from both
- Searched tax rolls AND deed books for the same period — no appearance in either
- Searched two adjacent counties for the same period — nothing in either
- Searched the expected record type in two different repositories — nothing in either
**Single misses are normal:**
- One census year with no hit (people get missed, enumerators skip households)
- One tax reel with no appearance (might be in the other district)
- One deed book with no transactions (not everyone bought/sold land every decade)
- Thirty images deep in a large collection with nothing yet (keep going)
### Escalate: Unresolvable Source Conflicts
When you have:
- Two or more sources of roughly equal reliability that disagree
- No clear explanation for the disagreement
- No additional source that could break the tie
- The conflict matters for the research question
### Escalate: Identity Confusion
When you suspect:
- Two different people are being conflated into one (common with Sr./Jr. or same-name cousins)
- One person has been split into two (different name spellings treated as different people)
- Records attributed to your ancestor may belong to someone else
### Escalate: Dead End After Systematic Search
When:
- The FAN research plan has been executed through its strategy
- All identified record sets have been searched
- The question remains unanswered
- You need new avenues to explore
### Do NOT Escalate
- You're partway through a planned search (finish first)
- You've only tried one obvious source (try more first)
- The search is progressing, just slowly
- You want confirmation of something you're already confident about (just log it)
- You haven't yet searched the primary record sets identified in the strategy
## What to Bring to the Council
When invoking the Council skill, provide:
1. **The research question** — Specific, measurable, as defined in the FAN plan
2. **What was searched** — Record sets, repositories, date ranges, pages covered
3. **What was found** — Key findings, even if they didn't answer the question
4. **What was NOT found** — Specific negative evidence
5. **Current hypothesis** — What you think is going on (even if uncertain)
6. **Why you're stuck** — What specifically is blocking progress
The Council works best with concrete data, not vague summaries. Give them the details.
## What to Expect
The Council will typically:
- Challenge assumptions you may not realize you're making
- Suggest record types or repositories you haven't considered
- Offer alternative interpretations of evidence you've found
- Identify patterns you may have missed (naming patterns, migration patterns, community connections)
- Recommend whether to continue the current strategy, pivot, or accept the dead end
## After the Council
1. Log the Council's recommendations in the Research Journal
2. Update the FAN research plan if new avenues are identified
3. Continue research along the recommended path
4. If the Council confirms a dead end, document it clearly on the person's note so future sessions don't re-search the same ground

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# Evidence Evaluation and Conflict Resolution
Detailed frameworks for analyzing genealogical evidence, resolving conflicts between sources, and building proof arguments.
## Source Weighting
Not all sources are equal. When sources conflict, weight them — don't count them.
### Weighting Factors (in priority order)
1. **Proximity to event** — Was the informant present? Was the record created at the time of the event?
2. **Informant knowledge** — Did the informant have direct knowledge, or are they reporting hearsay?
3. **Purpose of the record** — Was the information central to the record's purpose (bride's name on a marriage license) or incidental (birthplace on a census)?
4. **Original vs. derivative** — Are you looking at the original, or a transcription/abstract that may contain copying errors?
5. **Internal consistency** — Does the source contradict itself?
6. **Corroboration** — Do independent sources agree? (Derivative copies of the same original are NOT independent corroboration.)
### Common Weighting Mistakes
- **Counting sources instead of weighing them.** Three Ancestry member trees copying the same wrong date don't outweigh one original record.
- **Treating indexes as sources.** An index points to a record. The record is the source. Index errors are common.
- **Assuming original = accurate.** A death certificate is an original source but contains secondary information about birth (reported decades later by someone who may not have been present).
- **Ignoring negative evidence.** A person's absence from a record they should appear in is evidence. It doesn't prove anything alone, but it contributes to the picture.
## Conflict Resolution Framework
When sources disagree about a fact:
### Step 1: Define the Conflict Precisely
State exactly what each source says. "The birth year is unclear" is not precise. "The 1850 census says age 35 (born ~1815), the 1860 census says age 50 (born ~1810), and the death certificate says born 1812" is precise.
### Step 2: Classify Each Source
For each conflicting source, document:
- Source type (original / derivative / authored)
- Information type (primary / secondary / undetermined)
- Evidence type (direct / indirect / negative)
- Informant (who provided the information, if known)
- Informant's relationship to the fact (direct knowledge / hearsay / unknown)
### Step 3: Identify Explanations
Before choosing a winner, consider why the sources disagree:
- **Transcription error** — The original says one thing, the copy says another
- **Informant error** — The person reporting didn't know or misremembered
- **Different informants** — Each source had a different informant with different knowledge
- **Rounding or estimation** — Census ages are often rounded; "about 35" could mean 33-37
- **Identity confusion** — The sources may be about different people with the same name
- **Both partially correct** — The truth may be between the sources (e.g., moved mid-year)
### Step 4: Apply Evidence Weight
Rank the sources from most to least reliable for THIS SPECIFIC FACT. A source can be highly reliable for one fact and unreliable for another within the same document.
### Step 5: State the Conclusion
- If one source clearly outweighs others: state the conclusion and explain why
- If sources are roughly equal: acknowledge the conflict is unresolvable with current evidence and note what additional records might resolve it
- If a pattern emerges (e.g., ages consistently decrease on later censuses): note the pattern as it may explain the discrepancy
## GPS Deep Dive
### Element 1: Reasonably Exhaustive Research
"Reasonably exhaustive" does not mean "every record ever created." It means:
- You searched the record types that could confirm or deny the claim
- You searched the repositories where those records are likely held
- You searched for the subject AND relevant FAN members
- You documented what you searched, including negative results
- You did not stop at the first confirming source
**Test:** Could a competent researcher point to an obvious, accessible record set you didn't check?
### Element 2: Complete and Accurate Citations
Every source must be cited with enough detail that another researcher can:
- Find the exact same record
- Evaluate the source's reliability
- Distinguish between the original record and the access method (e.g., "digital image of original" vs. "database entry")
### Element 3: Analysis and Correlation
Sources must be compared to each other:
- What do they agree on?
- What do they disagree on?
- Do they corroborate independently, or are they derivative of each other?
- What does each source contribute to the overall picture?
### Element 4: Resolution of Conflicting Evidence
Conflicts cannot be ignored. For each conflict:
- Acknowledge it explicitly
- Explain possible causes
- Apply evidence weight
- State whether the conflict is resolved or remains open
- If unresolved, explain what additional evidence might resolve it
### Element 5: Soundly Reasoned Conclusion
The conclusion must:
- Follow logically from the evidence presented
- Not overstate what the evidence supports
- Acknowledge limitations and remaining uncertainties
- Be written clearly enough that another researcher can follow the reasoning and evaluate it independently
## Proof Levels
| Level | Meaning | GPS Status |
|-------|---------|------------|
| Proven | Beyond reasonable doubt | All 5 elements fully satisfied |
| Probable | Preponderance supports it | Most elements satisfied; minor gaps |
| Possible | Some evidence supports it | Significant gaps in research or evidence |
| Unproven | Insufficient evidence | Cannot assess; more research needed |
| Disproven | Evidence contradicts it | Evidence actively refutes the claim |
## Common Genealogical Evidence Patterns
### Census Age Discrepancies
Census ages are notoriously unreliable. The informant may not have known exact ages, may have rounded, or the enumerator may have estimated. A 2-3 year spread across censuses is normal and does not constitute a meaningful conflict.
### Name Spelling Variations
Before standardized spelling, names were recorded phonetically by the recorder. Atreides/Atreidies, Halleck/Hallek/Hallak, Leto/Leeto are the same name. Treat spelling as fluid, not as evidence of different people.
### "Same Name, Same Place" Trap
Two people with the same name in the same county are NOT necessarily the same person. Use age, associates, property, and family context to distinguish. The existence of "Sr." and "Jr." designations in records may indicate father/son, but may also just mean "older" and "younger" among unrelated men.

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# FAN Strategies and Community Reconstruction
Detailed guidance on applying the FAN (Family, Associates, Neighbors) principle and reconstructing historical communities.
## The FAN Principle
Your ancestor did not live in isolation. They existed within a web of family, business, legal, and social relationships. When direct records for your ancestor are scarce, the people around them often left records that mention, imply, or contextualize your ancestor.
### Family
- Parents, siblings, children, spouses
- In-laws (often co-located, often witnesses)
- Step-relations and guardians
- Aunts, uncles, cousins (especially in migration — families moved together)
- Godparents (in church records — often indicate close relationships)
### Associates
- **Legal:** Witnesses to deeds, wills, and bonds. Executors and administrators. Bondsmen. Attorneys-in-fact.
- **Business:** Partners, co-signers, buyers and sellers of land. People who appear in the same merchant ledgers.
- **Military:** Men in the same company or regiment. Officers who signed documents.
- **Church:** Fellow members, elders, deacons. People who witnessed baptisms or marriages.
- **Government:** Fellow jurors, road overseers, tax commissioners. People appointed together.
### Neighbors
- Adjacent landowners (from deeds and plats)
- Same census enumeration district (census takers walked in order)
- Same tax district
- Same church congregation
- People who migrated together (appearing in both the origin and destination)
## Building a Target List
A target list starts with the people you know and grows as you research.
### Starting a Target List
1. Gather what is already known about the subject from the tree and existing research notes
2. Check for an existing FAN cluster in the notebook
3. Add anyone from the tree who lived in the same time and place
4. Add names from any known documents (witnesses, neighbors from census, etc.)
### Growing the Target List During Research
Every document you examine may reveal new targets:
- **Wills:** Executors, witnesses, beneficiaries, people mentioned by name
- **Deeds:** Buyers, sellers, witnesses, adjacent landowners named in bounds
- **Census:** Everyone on the same page or enumeration district
- **Tax rolls:** People listed near the subject (often geographic neighbors)
- **Court records:** Plaintiffs, defendants, witnesses, jurors, judges
- **Church records:** Other families in the register near the same dates
When you see a name you recognize from the tree or from prior research, note it even if it's not directly relevant to the current goal. Record it in the journal under "Target List Updates."
### Managing the Target List
The target list is part of the FAN research plan. Keep it updated:
- Add new names with a note on where they appeared
- Mark names that turn out to be irrelevant (but don't delete — they may matter later)
- Note relationships as they become clear ("Thufir Hawat — witness to Paulus Atreides's will; appears adjacent in 10156 census")
## Community Reconstruction
Community reconstruction is the practice of mapping the social, economic, and geographic relationships in a locality rather than researching a single family in isolation.
### Why It Matters
- Records are community records. A deed book contains everyone's deeds. A census page contains everyone's household. Researching one family means you're already looking at the community.
- Migration was social. Families moved with neighbors. Finding where the neighbors went often reveals where your ancestor went.
- Naming patterns are community patterns. If three families in the same sietch all name sons "Gurney," it might be a local tradition, not a family connection.
- Witnesses and bondsmen reveal trust networks. The people your ancestor chose for legal documents were people they trusted — often family.
### How to Do It
1. **Start with a document, not a person.** When you're reading a deed book or tax roll, note everyone — not just your target.
2. **Map repeated names.** Who appears across multiple record types? Who witnesses for whom? Who buys land from whom?
3. **Track geographic proximity.** Adjacent landowners in deeds, nearby households in census, same district in tax rolls.
4. **Note migration clusters.** If three families from County A all appear in County B within a few years, that's a cluster migration worth documenting.
5. **Record it in the FAN cluster notes** in Librarian (fan/[person-place]/ structure).
### What to Extract from Documents (Full-Page Reading)
When examining a document page, extract for anyone on the target list:
- Full names (with spelling variants)
- Ages, dates, locations
- Relationships stated or implied
- Property descriptions and values
- Occupations or status markers
- Marks vs. signatures (literacy indicator)
- Witnesses and their roles
For people NOT on the target list but in the same document:
- Note surnames that appear frequently (potential community members)
- Note anyone with the same surname as a target list member
- Note unusual details that might connect to the research question
## FAN in Practice: Working a Will
A will is one of the richest FAN documents. Here's how to extract maximum value:
1. **Identify everyone named:** Beneficiaries, executors, witnesses
2. **Note relationships stated:** "my son," "my beloved wife," "my friend"
3. **Note property details:** Land descriptions (neighbors named in bounds), enslaved persons (named, may appear in other records), specific bequests
4. **Check the probate file:** The will is often just the beginning. Estate inventories, accounts of sale, guardian appointments, and distribution records follow.
5. **Research the witnesses:** Who were they? Were they family? Neighbors? Did they witness other documents for the same family?
6. **Research the executors:** Why were they chosen? Family connection? Business partner?
7. **Cross-reference the beneficiaries:** Do they appear in census, tax, or land records nearby?
8. **Note who is NOT in the will:** If a known child is absent, that's potentially significant (predeceased? already received inheritance? estranged?).