claude-plugins/genealogy/skills/genealogy-methodology/references/council-escalation.md

Council of Experts Escalation Guide

When to convene the Council, what to bring, and what to expect.

Purpose

The Council of Experts provides independent perspectives on research problems. It is most valuable when you've been grinding in one direction and need fresh eyes to see what you're missing. It is NOT a substitute for doing the research.

Escalation Criteria

Escalate: Pattern of Independent Failures

The key signal is independent failures — the same negative result across unrelated dimensions.

Two independent misses = stop and think:

• Searched two census years (different decades) across the expected county — person absent from both
• Searched tax rolls AND deed books for the same period — no appearance in either
• Searched two adjacent counties for the same period — nothing in either
• Searched the expected record type in two different repositories — nothing in either

Single misses are normal:

• One census year with no hit (people get missed, enumerators skip households)
• One tax reel with no appearance (might be in the other district)
• One deed book with no transactions (not everyone bought/sold land every decade)
• Thirty images deep in a large collection with nothing yet (keep going)

Escalate: Unresolvable Source Conflicts

When you have:

• Two or more sources of roughly equal reliability that disagree
• No clear explanation for the disagreement
• No additional source that could break the tie
• The conflict matters for the research question

Escalate: Identity Confusion

When you suspect:

• Two different people are being conflated into one (common with Sr./Jr. or same-name cousins)
• One person has been split into two (different name spellings treated as different people)
• Records attributed to your ancestor may belong to someone else

Escalate: Dead End After Systematic Search

When:

• The FAN research plan has been executed through its strategy
• All identified record sets have been searched
• The question remains unanswered
• You need new avenues to explore

Do NOT Escalate

• You're partway through a planned search (finish first)
• You've only tried one obvious source (try more first)
• The search is progressing, just slowly
• You want confirmation of something you're already confident about (just log it)
• You haven't yet searched the primary record sets identified in the strategy

What to Bring to the Council

When invoking the Council skill, provide:

1. The research question — Specific, measurable, as defined in the FAN plan
2. What was searched — Record sets, repositories, date ranges, pages covered
3. What was found — Key findings, even if they didn't answer the question
4. What was NOT found — Specific negative evidence
5. Current hypothesis — What you think is going on (even if uncertain)
6. Why you're stuck — What specifically is blocking progress

The Council works best with concrete data, not vague summaries. Give them the details.

What to Expect

The Council will typically:

• Challenge assumptions you may not realize you're making
• Suggest record types or repositories you haven't considered
• Offer alternative interpretations of evidence you've found
• Identify patterns you may have missed (naming patterns, migration patterns, community connections)
• Recommend whether to continue the current strategy, pivot, or accept the dead end

After the Council

1. Log the Council's recommendations in the Research Journal
2. Update the FAN research plan if new avenues are identified
3. Continue research along the recommended path
4. If the Council confirms a dead end, document it clearly on the person's note so future sessions don't re-search the same ground